Influenza: The Foremost Pathogen Threatening the Next Pandemic

Influenza: The Foremost Pathogen Threatening the Next Pandemic

As the world still grapples with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists warn of a potential new pandemic threat. Influenza, commonly associated with seasonal illnesses, has been identified as the most likely pathogen to cause the next global outbreak. This is according to an international survey carried out by Jon Salmanton-García from Cologne University and the Vaccelerate Consortium, a network focusing on pandemic preparedness.

The survey, which reached out to experts from 57 countries and received 187 responses, reveals that 57% of senior disease experts believe influenza will cause the next global outbreak of a deadly infectious illness. Influenza’s constant evolution and mutation contribute to its potential threat level, with the virus causing small pandemics each winter that are usually controlled as the strains are not virulent enough.

Following influenza, the survey identified ‘Disease X’ as the next most significant threat. This term, coined by the World Health Organization (WHO), signifies a serious international epidemic caused by an unknown pathogen. The WHO has been using the term ‘Disease X’ since 2018 to represent the next unknown disease with epidemic potential. The emergence of a new strain of this unknown disease could lead to a situation similar to the COVID-19 outbreak, catching the world unprepared.

While the focus is on influenza and Disease X, it’s crucial not to overlook other potential pandemic-causing pathogens. SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, is still considered a threat by 15% of the experts. Other deadly micro-organisms, like Lassa, Nipah, Ebola, and Zika viruses, while considered less likely to cause a global outbreak, still pose a serious global threat. As the world has learned from the COVID-19 pandemic, preparedness and constant vigilance are key in combating potential pandemics.